Investing for the future

A dear friend asked how come I had not written any recent articles about the credit crisis, the gargantuan trade deficit, the plunging dollar, gold above $900.00 an ounce, or commented about the recessionary trade winds that are permeating our economy. Well, since these issues are front and center in the media, and rightfully so, I have decided that I would not feed the fire by adding fuel to an already challenging environment. Instead, because I am an eternal optimist who likes to focus on the positive, (definitely not saying ignore the negative) I will concentrate on investing for the future.

As I look back to the United States of the past, and I am not a historian, we see a nation that is built on ingenuity and vigor that always rises to the challenges. Some examples of ingenuity are motor vehicles, telephones, railroads, bridges, tunnels, internet, man on the moon, and the space shuttle to name a few, all made possible by our number one resource, the electrical grid. Where would the United States be without electricity? Electricity has been the unpinning of every developed country and in America’s case taken for granted uptil now. I believe that is about to change and I will tell you why.

As the world becomes more educated people desire to live in a more comfortable life style is a natural phenomenon. India and China are perfect examples. These countries populations are enormous with great desire for absorbing information and learning brought on by the Internet. Other countries are following, increasing the demand for the non-renewable natural resources that enable the creation of electricity. Want some irony? America has been and continues to outsource manufacturing and service related industries to countries that have reduced labor cost. The result is increased demand by those countries for the resources used for the generation of electricity. So, not only are the jobs gone but competition for the natural resources used to create electricity that is America’s underpinning has increased tremendously and does not seem to be abating. Additionally, climate change issues abound thus causing increased pressure to manage the creation and usage of electricity.

There is no quick fix to the electric conundrum, however it seems law makers are reacting. On December 18, 2007 our President signed H.R.6 the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The short version of the bill is the funding for the reduction of greenhouse gases and to enhance energy conservation and efficiency. This means alternative energy supplies generated via renewable natural resources will becoming online. I have also noticed and increased usage of the phrase “Smart Grid”. In order for America’s electrical grid to take advantage of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, geothermal, and battery storage the electrical grid has to be upgraded. However creating new supplies is half the battle, managing the supplies is the other half, hence the term smart grid.

In closing several years ago in an online chat forum I wrote that Goggle has the ability to recognize a trend before the trend has fully developed. Goggle at that time with several others invested $100,000,000 into a privately owned smart grid company called Current Technologies. IBM is working with CenterPoint Energy to create a smart grid. Cree, Itron and Echelon are other companies worth mentioning. Flying way under the radar at .041 cents a share and buried in the over the counter bulletin board (OTCBB) land of lagers is Ambient Corp. Ambient Corp. is working with Con Edison, Duke Energy, First Energy, Entergy and a recently ended trial with San Diego Gas & Electric on smart grid technologies. I have often wondered why would behemoths utilities work with a company that does not have the resources to expand. I have not arrived at an answer but possibly trials with Ambient Corp is investing in the future, if so, should I? Thank you to my friend for inspiration.

Forensic Trader - Copyright © 2007, all rights reserved.

Notable economic observations from previous blog logs

The below are notable excerpts of economic trends observed by the Forensic Trader. Click on the links for full articles. Visit ForensicTrader.com and subscribe for stock market data that will prepare you trade a head of th crowd. http://forensictrader.com/services.html

Dec 15, 2007

How do I minimize inflation?

http://forensictrader.blogspot.com/2007/12/how-do-i-minimize-inflation.html


Monday, December 10, 2007

- Credit markets still on a slippery slope. Markets nervous, seems a shoe drops weekly, I am hopeful that Cinderella is not a centipede.Is the real moral hazard called ethanol?

http://forensictrader.blogspot.com/2007/12/prophetic-blogger.html


Monday, November 26, 2007

Stocks for Sale

Just finished watching “Mad Money” and Jim Cramer said investors should protect their portfolios from recession, (well he did not say recession, he said the “R” word) with defensive stocks such as Coke, Pepsi, Proctor Gamble, and others. A good idea if your name is Warren, but if you are a Citi, Countrywide, Bear Stearns, or Merrill employee………

http://forensictrader.blogspot.com/2007/11/stocks-for-sale.html



Friday, November 23, 2007

Day Trading black Friday

As I digest the Forensic Trader Radar (FTR) numbers the retail industry stands out more than others. Will the American consumer cutback its spending? Should black Friday be the measure of the consumer? May be a fantastic door busting black Friday does not bode well for the Christmas season.

http://forensictrader.blogspot.com/2007/11/day-trading-black-friday.html



Saturday, November 10, 2007

Volatility Views

A weaker dollar, with oil rising closer to $100.00 each day made retailers feel pain and technology hints of the same.

A weakening dollar may just be suggesting that the scales are being balanced.Since the US economy is in competition with numerous developing nations demand for a limited resource such as crude will cause the price to spike.Add to the equation the science of climate change. The facts appear to be indisputable.Can the development of “renewable energy sources catapult the US back into a leadership position?Does going green mean seeing red for while and is the US willing to sacrifice luxury for efficiency till the production of alternatives are ramped to levels that are meaningful.

http://forensictrader.blogspot.com/2007/11/volatility-views.html

A Day Trading Plan

MSFT high price on 1/7/2008 = $34.80. As predicted by the FTR on 1/6/2008 MSFT would find resistance at $34.79. (see the repost below the line for proof )

Visit http://forensictrader.com/ services page to subscribe to the Forensic Trader stock data that is by far more accurate than any service available.
___________________________________________________________________

The below is a repost from my sister http://forensictrader.com/blog.html posted on 1/6/08.

Are you a struggling equities trader? The market is rallying and you purchase only to lose capital on the trade. The market is tanking and you sell short only to lose capital on trade. You feel snake bitten, you feel the market has it in for you. Don’t take it personal. Armed with the data that is available by subscribing to http://forensictrader.com/ services may help to alleviate your frustration. For example, let’s say you day trade symbol = MSFT. How would you prepare to enter the trade. Most day traders follow the same routine. They team a level 2 screen with a 3 minute stochastic chart, watch the futures, and wait for a trend. Not a bad technique, but what if you knew based on MSFT closing data on 1/4/2008 the support and resistance prices for the next trading day (1/7/2008). In my opinion, armed with such data enhances the chances of profitability. Let’s put MSFT under the microscope based on closing data 1/4/08, 4PM.

Closing price = $34.38, % change = -2.80%, Volume = 72, 051,850

"The Forensic Trader Radar calculates that MSFT closed below its Support of $34.52 and will find Resistance at $34.79."

ForensicTrader.com Launched

As promised http://forensictrader.com/index.html has been launched. If it is equities you trade let forensic lead the way. Sign up for a free seven day trial. Visit and browse around our services page at http://forensictrader.com/services.html

Forensic Trader - Copyright © 2007, all rights reserved.

Symbol, Volume,and Closing price data are assumed accurate, however readers are responsible for verifying stock market data. Bias, support and resistance is determined via proprietary calculations and should not be considered buy or sell advise.